The pound slipped against a strengthening dollar on Wednesday and maintained its losses after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated he expected price pressures to ease, as soon as April.
Speaking at the British Chambers of Commerce Global Annual Conference, Bailey said that if price pressures were to be more persistent, further tightening of policy may be required, but added there were signs the labour market was loosening a little.
On Tuesday, data showed Britain’s jobless rate rose to 3.9%, while the rate of increase in total pay, including bonuses, held steady, prompting some investors to scale back their bets on further interest rate hikes.
“We took a dovish view from what the Bank of England was telling us last week and thankfully the (labour market) data has confirmed that,” said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe.
“While we think that conditions in the UK economy are a bit more constructive towards capital inflows, we don’t think that the improvement is so vast that you’re going to see sterling continue to outperform,” he added.
The pound was last down 0.3% at $1.2440, having earlier hit a three-week low of $1.2422.
Sterling was little changed at 87.01 pence per euro.
The BoE has raised rates by a combined 400 basis points since it began tightening policy in late 2021, but markets are split on the central bank’s next move.
Traders price in around a two-in-three chance of a 25 basis point hike at the June meeting, with around a one-in-three chance they remain on hold, according to data from Refinitiv.
Much will depend on the strength of future data, with next week’s April inflation print a key input.
CitiFX’s economic surprise index for the UK (.CESIGBP) is holding near its highest level in almost two years, suggesting data is more upbeat compared to expectations, supporting the pound in recent weeks.
But this also means the bar is higher for potential positive surprises, which analysts said could leave the pound vulnerable if data starts surprising to the downside.
