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2022 was a rough year for investors, especially in the tech sector with the Nasdaq finishing the year down 33%.
However, the good news is that the sharp sell-offs and beaten-down valuations in a number of stocks have set up investors for a strong recovery when market sentiment shifts. Many growth stocks, in particular, look well priced considering their long-term potential. While it’s rare for a stock to double in just one year, two could do so in 2023.
Shares of Roku (ROKU 3.40%), the leading streaming distribution platform, crashed last year, falling 82% as ad growth ground to a halt and the company posted wide losses after ramping up investments in the business.
However, Roku is far from a broken company, and the fundamentals of the business continue to improve. For example, the company just passed 70 million active accounts, adding nearly 10 million last year, an improvement over growth in 2021. Roku also saw a substantial increase in usage on its platform, with hours streamed up 19% to 87.4 billion in 2022.
Those numbers show that demand for streaming on Roku continues to increase despite the purported headwinds in the sector. The company also launched its first Roku-branded TV last week, opening a new revenue stream and creating a more streamlined customer experience.
2022 was a disappointing period for digital advertising as demand slowed sharply in the year’s second half. Roku actually forecast a decline in revenue in the fourth quarter, but those headwinds are priced into the stock today.
There’s also good reason to believe things could improve in 2023. The recent launch of ad tiers on Disney+ and Netflix streaming services and the migration of live sports to streaming will open up more monetizable ad inventory for Roku, and the ad market will recover once economic headwinds dissipate. Of course, a full-fledged recovery in the stock may take a rebound in the economy, but with the worst of the Fed’s rate hikes now behind us, that could come sooner than expected.
Expectations at Roku are low for 2023. However, the stock could soar this year if the streaming platform can easily clear these modest targets.
Like Roku, Okta (OKTA 5.94%) had a forgettable 2022. Shares of the cloud identity company lost 69% last year as it admitted problems with its integration of Auth0, the customer identity software company it acquired in 2021. It backed away from long-term growth targets and said revenue would significantly decelerate in 2023 (fiscal 2024). Okta has also lost several high-level executives, adding to the perception of disarray at the company.
However, Okta, which gives companies tools that allow customers and employees to securely log on and stay connected to the apps they need, has several catalysts in its favor as it starts the new year — and it looks like a prime candidate for a comeback.
First, the company is the independent leader in cloud identity. This fast-growing market tends to be more recession-proof than other areas in software since it’s seen as an extension of cybersecurity. The company is also expanding into adjacent markets that will bring its total addressable market to $80 billion, which compares to nearly $2 billion in annual revenue today. Okta launched its Identity Governance Access (IGA) product last year and is planning to introduce Privileged Access Management (PAM) later this year. Some customers appear to be waiting for PAM to buy the enhanced Okta suite when it’s released.
Responding to market demands, the company has significantly improved its profitability in the last quarter and in its forward-looking guidance. After rounding, the adjusted loss in the third quarter was $1 million, or essentially break-even per share. This was ahead of a loss of $0.07 per share and much better than the consensus at a $0.24 per-share loss. Fourth-quarter guidance was also much better than expected, showing the company has more control over its profitability than analysts thought.
Investors seemed disappointed with fiscal 2024 guidance, calling for just 16%-17% revenue growth, but the company has been historically conservative with its guidance, and it’s likely doing that with next year’s forecast.
If Okta can top that mark, successfully roll out PAM, and continue to improve profitability, the stock has a lot of room for recovery this year.
Jeremy Bowman has positions in Netflix, Okta, Roku, and Walt Disney. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Netflix, Okta, Roku, and Walt Disney. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2024 $145 calls on Walt Disney and short January 2024 $155 calls on Walt Disney. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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